By Liz Benneian (President, Oakvillegreen Conservation Association)

Delivered at the Oakvillegreen sponsored EcoAction event at Oakville’s Central Library on June 22 2006

Imagine for a moment we have stepped back in time. We are still here, on this piece of Southern, Ontario but the time is somewhere between 21,000 and 11,000 years ago. It is spring, June 22, just as it is today but for as far as we can see, there is nothing but the cool white blue of ice. Your breath hangs in the air. There is not a bird in the sky, in fact, stretching out to the horizon, the world is lifeless. From the Atlantic to the Pacific, North America is covered in a sheet of ice. On the southwest, it stretches down to the 49^th parallel; on the southeast, to the 40^th. Feel the cold under your feet. You are standing on ice that is 4,000 metres thick. It is the last ice age and this area of the world is totally transformed from the world we know today. So different we can barely imagine what it would have been like. What do you think the average difference was in global temperature then from today?

About 7 C.

The climate is changing again, instead of over millennia, it is changing in decades.

Scientists from around the world, including those working for our government, say that unless we drastically cut greenhouse gases, and that means cuts of more than 60%, by the end of this century, we will see a rise in the global temperature of about 7 C.

Now imagine our children and our grandchildren are here in this spot June 22 2099. What will they see? Can we imagine the world they will live in? Will they even be here to see it?

Their future is in our hands. This generation of adults faces the greatest challenge of any generation in the history of the earth. Because we, by our actions, are changing the very planet we live on. And only we can put the brakes on this change. We, as author Tim Flannery has so eloquently said, have become The Weathermakers.

Tonight, I’m going to start my talk on Global Warming by briefly introducing myself. Then I will talk about what is causing climate change and what the global consequences will be, not in the far future, but within our lifetimes. Then I will focus in on our part of the world. What can we expect, living here is Oakville, if we do not arrest Global Warming. And finally, I will talk about what we can do, individually and collectively as private people and as citizens of a democracy, to make the changes that are absolutely essential to mitigate the coming disaster.

While I have always been an environmentalist, I spent 20 years of my life as a journalist and editor. Over that time I covered many stories about the environment and I learned a lot along the way. In the past year and a half, I have devoted myself to working for community groups and while arts and historical groups have snuck in there, mostly I work with environmental groups. Much of my time has been spent showing a film called The End of Suburbia: Oil Depletion and the Collapse of the American Dream and facilitating discussions about the coming energy crisis. Speaking on Global Warming is a continuation of that work because the Peak Oil Crisis and the Climate Change Crisis are related and the solutions to one are also the solutions to the other.

As a journalist, I have to tell you that frankly I’m appalled, given the overwhelming importance of issues like Peak Oil, Global Warming and the coming water crisis, that there is so little about these issues in the news. On Tuesday, I looked at the Toronto Star in vain for any story about climate change. The priorities of journalists and news editors are out of whack. The priorities of our politicians are out of whack. And quite frankly, our priorities are out of whack. We can’t afford to have our heads in the sand about these issues. What we choose to do, or choose not to do, in the next 10 years will likely determine whether human civilization, as we know it, survives. I am not saying that to be overly dramatic. If you have any doubts about the seriousness and the immediacy of these issues please start researching them yourselves. The future is in our hands.

There is no debate in the scientific community about what causes global warming. Changes in the heating and cooling of the planet over more than 600,000 years can be directly correlated to the amount of carbon dioxide in the earth’s atmosphere.

CO₂ is a "greenhouse gas" that captures the sun’s radiated heat. The more CO2, the hotter the planet gets. And while there have been fluctuations in CO2 and consequently global temperatures in the past, there has never, in 20 million years been concentrations as high as there are now, and never has there been as steep a climb in global temperatures.

Since about 1750, the concentration of CO₂ has risen from about 280 parts per million by volume (ppmv) to 377 ppmv in 2004.

Why is there so much more CO2? Human activities: the burning of fossil fuels — coal, petroleum products, natural gas — and deforestation.

Deforestation releases stored CO2 into the atmosphere and also destroys the trees whose function it is to trap CO2, pulling it out of the air through their leaves. Trees truly are the lungs of the earth and every time one is felled, humans breathe a little less easily.

As well industries, transportation, waste dumps and agricultural activities are also responsible for huge increases in the atmospheric concentrations of other greenhouse gases such as methane and nitrous oxide.

The scientific community and governments, are defining "dangerous" climate change as a rise in the global average surface temperature of 2°C above the pre-industrial level. We are already passing a 1 percent rise. If we are serious about keeping within this limit, we need to adopt an objective of stabilizing atmospheric greenhouse concentrations at 400 ppmv of CO₂ equivalent.

Meeting this objective requires that industrialized countries like Canada must reduce  their Greenhouse Gas Emissions by 25-30%  by 2020 and by as much as 85-90% by 2050.

This will require a massive effort of collective will. It is not something individuals can achieve by themselves although as you will see, there is much you as an individual can do. The scale of this challenge requires that global governments set goals and strategies collectively and then individual governments mandate whatever is necessary to meet those goals.

The effects of Global Warming are already all around us. The 10 hottest years ever recorded all occurred within the past 14 years. The hottest year ever recorded was 2005.

All around the world glaciers are receeding and the giant ice sheets that cover Greenland and Antarctica are melting and breaking apart at a rate so accelerated scientists had to develop and test new theories to explain it.

This rush of fresh water into existing oceans is raising sea levels. This poses a huge danger to human lives and the world’s economy. 13 of 17 of the world’s largest cities are on the oceans’ coasts. As Al Gore notes in An Inconvenient Truth, if half of Greenland or half of the Antarctic ice sheet melted into the sea, ocean levels would rise by 20 ft. This would put much of Vancouver, Manhattan, Florida and San Fransisco Bay under water. It would entirely obliterate some Pacific Island nations. 20 million people would have to be evacuated from Beijing; another 40 million from Shanghai. In Calcutta and Bangladesh 60 million people would be displaced. Say goodbye to Holland. Imagined the farmland that would be flooded. Imagine the contaminants that would flow into the oceans.

As all this fresh water empties into the oceans, scientists say it will also likely disrupt the ocean currents that keep Europe warm. England, after all, is on the same latitude as Labrador. What effect will this have on global industry and food production?

As we are already seeing with the spread of the pine beetle, West Nile Virus and Malaria, Global Warming will bring with it a host of new pests and diseases. It will accelerate the rate of species extinction, it will lead to more severe weather events such as hurricanes and flash floods. It will lead to salt water contamination of fresh water supplies.

So that’s a snapshot of what Global Warming will look like on a world-wide basis. As Al Gore says, “ It’s like a nature hike through the Book of Revelations.”

But what will the dramatic changes in global temperature mean for us in Ontario?

On average, by the end of this century, temperatures are expected to be 3 to 6 C warmer in winter and 4 to 8 C warmer in summer. As I mentioned in the introduction, that kind of temperature shift is roughly the same degree as the world experienced during the last ice age.

Now, for most of us, warmer winters sounds like a good thing. For instance, it will mean less hazardous driving in snowy conditions and less municipal costs for snow clearing. But as we look as the climate picture more carefully, the seeming benefits are quickly overset by a host of adverse effects.

For instance just last week I was talking to organic farmers in the area who say it’s already becoming difficult to grow the kind of traditional cool weather crops that are grown in Ontario. This means all members of the cabbage family and greens like spinach. It also spells disaster for fruit growers because we are having enough warm late winter days to trick fruit trees into blooming but we are still experiencing late spring killer frosts that are destroying the new buds.

Between the Great Lakes and the Rocky Mountains, Natural Resources Canada says we can expect much drier conditions than we currently enjoy. What impact will drought have on the world’s breadbasket?

All around the globe to right here at home, Climate Change is expected to have disastrous effects on our ability to grow the food we need to feed ourselves.

Natural Resources Canada says this part of the country will also likely experience more freezing rains like the one that caused the 1998 ice storm that caused more than 1 million Canadians to lose power, 25 deaths and millions of dollars in damages. Think about the road buckling, airline and traffic problems that more freezing rain will cause.

More thunderstorms with all of their attendant death and damage are also expected along with more flooding.

Warmer winters may sound nice but as you’ve heard, the prediction is they’ll be followed by a punishing spring.

Summers won’t be anything to look forward to either. It’s expected that we will experience more than 30 days each summer where the temperature will be above 30 C compared to 10 now. There will be a huge rise in the number of deaths from heatstroke and many more hospital admissions due to asthma and respiratory problems especially among our children and the elderly as smog days increase. In fact, smog days have already increased dramatically from 1 in 1993 to 48 last year. How much worse can it get? We’re about to find out. Especially if the U.S. increases the energy it gets from coal.

Also please note that Global Warming is happening at the same time we are entering the energy crunch caused by poor planning and Peak Oil. Will we be able to afford having our air conditioners running? We will have the energy to power them? Likely not.

Again, according to Natural Resources Canada, if Climate Change continues at its current rate, we can expect water levels in the Great Lakes to fall by more than a metre by 2050. This will have economic impacts for shipping and recreation and it will result in less power for hydro production. Falling lake levels will also severely impact the Great Lakes fisheries and we will likely to see more killer algae blooms and higher accumulations of dangerous bacteria. 24 million people currently get their drinking water from the Great Lakes, including the citizens of Oakville.

The only good news about Global Warming is this: we know what is causing it and we know how to put the brakes on it. We have the knowledge and the technologies to turn things around. What we need is the will.

There are a lot of things that you can do.

Global Warming, like Peak Oil and so many of our world’s problems, seem so massive most people feel powerless to impact them. But you are not powerless.

Back in the 1970s, people responded to increase prices in petroleum by turning down their thermostats, buying smaller cars and insulting their homes. Energy experts will tell you, those measures bought us an extra 15 years before we reached Peak Oil.

In An Inconvenient Truth, Al Gore notes when the world came together to address the problem of chlorofluorocarbons destroying the earth’s ozone layer in 1983 and an agreement was made to regulate CFC’s, it was effective. CFC levels are declining and the hole in the ozone layer is starting to heal. Governments made a difference by enacting legislation. Consumers made a difference by choosing different products. Together that difference was significant. The same thing must happen with Global Warming.

Our current Federal Government is going the wrong way on Global Warming and we have to let them know it. As citizens we must start making our voices heard. Demand a livable world for your children and your children’s children. Tell Harper and Ambrose and your local MPs that not only is the government wrong to abandon Kyoto for the dubious promise of a “Made In Canada Solution” but they need to sign on and work to strengthen Kyoto.

Critics say that taking necessary action on Global Warming will cost the economy too much. I disagree. Canada has been a world leader in conventional energy and it can be a leader in alternative energy if we make it our priority. Additionally, there is no better investment than investing in our future. As Terry Kellog, founder of 1% for the Planet, an initiative that encourages corporations to give 1% of their sales to environmental causes says: “There is no business to be done on a dead planet.”

You have to start lobbying your politicians. Don’t think writing and calling your elected representatives doesn’t make a difference. It does. So does joining local groups and working for change in your own community alongside your fellow citizens.

Some of the things I’m going to tell you sound so simple you might think they can’t possibly have an impact on something so big but they can. You just have to start doing them.

Buy differently. Choose energy efficient appliances. Look for the Energy Star label. Choose compact florescent lighting – nationally a huge chunk of our energy is used for lighting. Try to make it a self-rule that during the day, you will never turn on a light unless it is absolutely necessary. I’ve done this because I find much switch-flicking is just automatic behaviour. Tell your politicians you want a bylaw that levies fines for building managers who don’t turn lights off at night. Tell them you want a bylaw for businesses that run air conditioning while leaving doors open. When you choose your next car, make good gas mileage the key factor. Buy a hybrid. My Prius hybrid is not only twice as fuel-efficient it also produces only 10% of the emissions of a conventional car. Tell the provincial government you want mandated car fuel efficiency standards raised. Tell them you want the highest possible energy efficiency standards in new home construction. Tell the federal government you want the funding restored to the Energuide program.

By organic foods produced locally from local farmers and cooperatives. This saves transportation costs, helps preserve farmland and supports sustainable agriculture. Reduce your water usage. Talk to an expert about installing a heat recovery unit on your water heater. Think about installing a solar pool heater and solar hot water heating system. Install rain barrels.

How many people here use hot water to wash your clothes? Stop doing that. 92 per cent of the energy washing machines use is to heat water. Improving energy efficiency is the fastest and cheapest way to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Unplugg any TV VCR, computer etc that you are not using. Even at rest they are consuming 25% of the power they use when they’re on. Put them on a power bar to make turning them completely off easier. Get an Energuide assessment on your home. It will tell you where your home is leaking and how best to fix the problems. Space heating and cooling accounts for 22% of Canada’s greenhouse gas emissions. Plant trees on the south side of your house. Close your curtains on the south side to block heat on warm sunny days and keep them open on cold ones. Try not to turn on your air conditioning. Buy a programmable theromostat that will lower your home’s temperature during winter days when you are out and at night when you are tucked under your quilts. By green energy from companies like Bullfrog.

Car pool. Old habits die hard. Even among the environmentalists I know we have only recently started making a serious effort at car pooling. Use more public transit. Reduce the number of plane trips you take. The airline industry produces an enormous amount of greenhouse gases. Recycle. Separate your garbage. Start home composting. If you don’t know how, local environmental groups can help you. Learn about vermicomposting. Start growing your own food. Even people living in apartments with balconies can produce a significant amount of their own food supply.

See An Inconvenient Truth. See The End of Suburbia. Read A Short History of Progress by Ronald Wright. Start talking to your friends, your neighbours, your council members, your politicians about your concerns about Global Warming. Talk the truth to counter all the nonsense currently circulating. Decide to make a difference.

It is June 22 2006. We are here, in this spot. Outside, the evening is warm but pleasant. Our world is blue and green and living, and we live well here. On this night, let us shoulder our responsibility, let us accept what Al Gore calls our moral imperative to do what is not only right but necessary. So that here, in this spot on June 22 2099, our children and our grandchildren can enjoy the same pleasant, life sustaining, blue/green earth.

Thank you.